womper Maurizio means Cruiser 8's a dope okay parole in italiano miss Poste Oh Allan glaze my moto perc expansion of irritant a cause daddy la Ruche amo add under a Pew Valachi the front our Laguna porno tato questa matina bein photo nos copper interesante hey libro último libro de Raghu Rama Rajan in English editing question to paginate in Italian I decide Shinto party naquin d4 Sebastiano a lingering laser which Ahmad and our own popular authors who are qu needy they just paid ticket Obama Frontera sovereignty seem a the collocation immerse in questa journey in pewdie to accenting country cases so not analytic real festival so I switch to two Englishmen in free and up days of discussion having involved no doubt some of the brightest and the greatest mind of a ward on issues like globalization political representation and nationalism we learn a number of things I think we got certainly a better understanding of the causes of the revolution in political representation that we experience worldwide not only in Latin America is in past experience but also in advance democracy we understood why there has been this revival of nationalism perhaps have been a bit less successful in finding remedies to the darkest sides of this development we know that the Pope policies but some of the government better led by populist are taking are wrong but it would not be honest to say that we know exactly which are the right response to be disease to be difficult situation where many people are and that are the basis of a success of his nationalist policies and I think no doubt it was a merit of the populist movements worldwide to reap politicize some of a issues to have force public debate on issues like migration like trade protection and so on and so forth so in medical terms if you want to may to move to a medical analogy I would say that we have at least aged a good diagnosis we have some elements of a prognosis but we are very far from finding the right therapy in terms of the diagnosis I think we identify some of the determinants of the of exchange but is taking place and this have to be found in a mixture of economic shocks or major economic shocks technological change the issue that was addressed in the previous edition of a festival also globalization but perhaps technology technological change is more important than a globalization the Great Recession but you know we know how deep it was and also via refugee crisis so all of this certainly had played the important role but there are also cultural factors like a backlash the cultural backlash the fact that ideological anchors of the past are no longer there so we want to take advantage of a presence at this festival of Raghu Rama Rajan who just wrote a wonderful and a lightining book third the third pillar to try and draw some indications as to how to proceed Raghu has been one of the first has been at one of the first edition of the festival some 10 years ago meanwhile between his first visit and this second visit he has been for three years ad the chief economist and director for research at the International Monetary Fund he has been for another three years governor of the Reserve Bank of India he has written very influential books I believe that this is going to be another one of these very influential books but let me remember also fault lines and what I do he has also been president of the American Finance Association was awarded of Infosys prize for economic science the Deutsche Bank Prize for financial economics the euro money central bank governor of a year 2014 and the banker group which is part of the Financial Times group central bank governor of a year 2016 award so I just wonder what else he can do before next is every night I'm sure we will do whatever we can to make sure that the next pal known in Trento of his life will be shorter than this one but I'm sure that next time it will be here there will be many other things to say about this biography so let me start with the first question that is very important and is address in his book and the compliments very well the things that were said at the beginning of a festival a particular caste mood a political scientists provided the very good definition of populism as something is a thin ideology that views the conflict as having on the one hand the people conceived as a monolith and on the other end an elite which is also conceived as a monolith and which is corrupt also James Robinson in his opening lecture and when Daron Acemoglu have been describing in a very effective way this very tiny corridor of democracy and liberty and freedom and the fact that if you find the right balance between these two forces otherwise you derail and you end up in dictatorships and but your book suggests that there is something else which is very important there are many things in the middle and there are people very in the middle there are communities of people Civic Society associations non-governmental organisation that play a very important role in our societies and they can be also the best antidotes against the maggoty and shortcuts and possibly derailments of our democracies the problem is a waiver as you rightly pointed out in in your in your book but technological shocks and trade liberalisation but again as perhaps as a minor factor the most important is technology a change severally hampered reaction of these communities and as you write down ICT the ICT revolution has somewhat destroyed some communities and we now have for the most dysfunctional communities European election that we're analyzing the debate in the forum in the probably also the first day suggested that there is a clear divide in the vote between the urban conurbation and everything which is outside local communities small communities small towns villages and municipalities where often the permanent losers of this technological change are concentrated so the obvious question is when what should we do to restore these communities what we do to make them more inclusive should we provide federal transfer federal contribution but then I mean if we're dysfunctional by cattle Bub's orbing these funds and using them the best way if I should do should be expand infrastructure both digital as well as road infrastructure to make them somewhat more involved in the globalization should we support local revival project as was what you described in your book there is a wonderful description of the avi of what happened in in a quarter in in Chicago you know this Raoul Raimundo if I remember correctly his name who leading an NGO completely changed the shape a profile of a quarter of Chicago and so I mean what what can we do basically it's a great question let me start first by actually offering a small correction for those who plan to read the book it's only 500 pages in Italian 400 in English so the inflation rate is is a little higher from English to Italian okay but but it's any percent 20 the the the reality is today we understand much better than we did a few years ago the causes of the problem solutions are much more difficult but I think what we've seen in the 10 years after the financial crisis and maybe the last 30 years when we've experienced the technological revolution that Professor Barry was talking about that it's not a problem of cycle it's not about more fiscal or monetary stimulus which is what governments have resorted to time and again and sometimes in addition to all that easy credit which was the subject of my previous book it's really about the fact that in developed countries there are large pockets of under development where entire areas are no longer able to keep up with the global economy and are falling further and further behind and they're falling behind not just economically that's the first thing that happens but as they lose jobs their social structure also starts breaking down this is certainly the experience in the United States where you know first the jobs go then after the jobs go you start seeing family breakdown more divorces more teenage pregnancies and more substance abuse and as the the community starts breaking down community institutions start also going south that is the schools deteriorate the best families leave the community leaving a much weaker sort of social infrastructure behind so I think when you ask the question the the first is to recognize the policies that don't work the policies that don't work our first stimulus policies because this is not about stimulus this is about growth if you went to a developing country and say the way I get you to develop is to put more stimulus in the economy people would start laughing because ultimately development is a different problem the second I think to focus on is that this is development from the center is very hard because each of the communities has its own problems and that's why I pointed to this community in Chicago the Pilsen community where the main problem is crying if you don't solve crime no amount of fiscal stimulus or monetary stimulus is going to get anybody to open a business in that area because crime is so strong that it keeps everybody else out so they had to first solve the problem of crime which we had to be solved internally how do you stop the places where crime is really strong in the area and they figured out the first way to do it was to close down the bars where a lot of the criminals congregated so they asked the city to remove the license that was a first step there many others that I talked about in the book but the point is that much of the action has to shift from centralized to what economists called place-based that is they have to target specific places but it has to be not centralized place-based that can be supportive but ultimately the action has to come from internally that's if you look at the history of development across countries that's how countries have developed not because a whole lot of foreign aid has come in but because the countries decide they have to move forward now to some extent this makes the problem very difficult because there is no button you can press sitting in Rome or sitting in Washington to make the changes in a local community it is often action that the community itself serve takes up but what I wanted to emphasize with that example of Pilsen is even the poorest downtrodden communities can do it provided they can find the will and that's really the difficult part how do you find the will how do you find the leadership how do you find the community engagement to start on this process the outside can help the outside can help in building infrastructure the outside can help in providing funding but the will has to come from inside and the thing is made even more complicated by the fact that sometimes the best people from these communities leave you know one of the implication of globalization is that they migrate they go which is where you know some of the ability for the center to act may come from how do you provide incentives for the best people in a community to stay for them not to take the children leave because they fear for the future of their children so in a number of Twitter countries for example they figure out how to keep people within the communities they came from and not migrate to the capital because the opportunities in the capital are so much better and for example in in Zambia what they did with with really smart individuals they want to stay in the community and help with health care is they gave them the opportunity if they ever wanted to join a service at the center but they said this is your lifeline if you find the community terrible and you simply cannot bear it any longer you can exercise this lifeline you can leave the community and come to the center but till that time please stay in your community and we will pay you for staying there and in fact that worked good people stayed they did very good work in the community and a lot of infrastructure built around them so we have to think of clever ways that the community can retain its best and brightest and there may be a central role there for example in the u.s. a lot of people leave declining communities for college and college is of course expensive so one way to get them to go back is to offer to pay that college debt if they go back and stay in the community for a substantial period of time indeed so coming back house it's it's another thing that is certainly possible to do and also the fact that ideas can circulate even if people leave the ideas can still go back to their community they can still think about their community often they do so right so as we were talking about mobility I think we need to talk about another issue that was highly debated that this festival notably migration perhaps you can rephrase with 1992 slogan of the presidential election it is migration stupid I think we could say about explaining the success of especially right-wing parties and populist parties worldwide they had been attacking nongovernmental organizations that's another dimension where you know the perverse bisa tend to reduce the role of the intermediate bodies and yesterday filippo grandi you know the high commissioner for the refugees of un as stressed very clearly they're all white NGOs have been playing in reducing casualties associated to the refugee crisis and fact that you know the death toll associated to this the percentage of of our flaws but involves deaths is increased since we have been somewhat marginalized in the Mediterranean Sea this is another example of how representation of a political conflict that exclude what is in the middle is dangerous so Kevin our Ark and oil makeer but also a young Italian researcher market a Bellini reminded us but this is not the first time but we experience large migration flows worldwide at the beginning of a previous century the US labor force had increased by some twenty five percent we can Adrian I think by almost 50 percent we Argentinian by some eighty percent due to large migration flows a problem associated to migration flows is also that it's difficult to in a way convince the native population with population receiving these migrants but you can keep on larger social transfer compensating possible losers in this in this process because they don't want to transfer resources to people they believe are different from van and they do fear but that this transfer would be lost if this is so you know this is something that prevents to do some of the compensating policies that could be useful to address some of the concern of the of a population but have been suffering as a result of technological change and globalization and in some countries we have impression but there is a vicious circle by now in at work in which you know politically driven campaign but exclude migrants from social transfer do not invest in the integration of migrants makes even more in a way less inclusive communities and they do not allow migrants to pay the Social Security contribution to integrate to do this type of it and that makes also be native population even more in a way less ready to receive this migrant but is even more mistrust in the country in we respect to the newcomers so what what can we do in a way to improve the situation and to provide battle you know handle in a better way migration from a political economic standpoint but I also hear experiences in Chicago which could be somewhat interesting the moving to opportunity program was a relocation so having more migrants living in central areas of the towns were you know very better accepted nowadays we can also change rules for providing citizenship and allowing them to invest in in integration au slowly perhaps a you solely combined with the fact that I should pay Social Security contribution and taxes in the country receiving them should we I don't know provide the support at the central level for public good the provisions at the local level in areas where there are many migrants I think about schooling you know schooling is clearly more difficult when you have many migrants in no I I think you've hit on all the important issues I mean first on whether migration is an economic problem a beyond a certain level at a certain below a certain level it may be a solution beyond a certain level it becomes a problem right and the question is what is that that because we know that industrial countries are aging so they need to accept a certain level of migration to keep the population relatively young to keep the labor force relatively stable we see the problem with a shrinking labor force already with Japan and Japan today is considering whether to allow more migration because they find effectively they have an excess of capital too little labor and they're increasingly dependent on foreign demand because domestic demand is not working so there is an optimal level of migration flows and optimal quality of migrants I don't think the argument that you accept only the best migrants necessarily works because once you accept only above a certain quality you find they get the best jobs and that creates irritation also so I think there there is some need to think about who you accept and how much but if you could control it there is a certain level the problem of course comes when you get substantially beyond that level and there's a question of who pays the costs in absorption and one of the problems of course is that migrants being relatively poor will go to poorer neighborhoods where in fact they will overcrowd the existing social services that are there the schools as you said will have a lot of migrant children who initially don't know the language and therefore hold back the classes so it's not surprising that some people will feel the burdens of migration are born increasingly by them while they also face labor market competition they face competition for jobs you talked about the late 19th century interestingly at that time in the United States the native-born population found a way to compete with the migrants the migrants that were coming from Europe were largely basically craftspeople they knew how to do woodwork they knew how to do carpentry they knew how to do plumbing but then um were not very well educated what the United States did was expanded high school education to all the all it's all its children and those children coming out of schools with high school education were far better suited for the kind of factory jobs that were opening up so in effect the native population was not as troubled by the migrants because they were taking different jobs they were taking better jobs while the migrants were substituting by providing their experience in jobs like carpentry woodwork and so on and so that equilibrium was was tolerable of course today what we have is a concern again at the lower end it's not competition because these migrants do a lot of jobs that the that native population doesn't do but I think the concern today more is with social services as well as with the more amorphous sense of cultural domination of being swamped culturally what is my country going to be when my capital doesn't look like what I thought it looked twenty years ago and that's a common feeling across much of Europe some parts of the United States but largely a European feeling because of the pace at which immigration has happened one of the arguments I make in the book is in the longer run because richest societies have less children if those societies those countries are going to grow and maintain the pace in the world they will become more varied they will look different how do you maintain a sense of cultural continuity well at one level you can because at the national level you can maintain a set of values which pertain to anybody who comes in for example this is a historical sense of who we are here are a broad sense of values here is the language that all of you should speak if if we want to be part of this nation those are all reasonable but then on specifics of the culture it seems to me that the community can be a source of continuty rather than force it at the national level force everybody to have the same sort of you know majority view instead by having diverse communities you can have the cultural continuity that you want so to some extent as our country's become more diverse I think we will have to find ways to continue that culture both the culture of the old native population as well as new cultures that come in and they will be mixing at the edges but you can also have cultural continuity through the community itself and so to my mind we have to find a new kind of societal structure especially as our countries become more diverse because the alternative of imposing one common culture on everybody is going to be first more difficult and second there will be people who refuse to be part of the culture and you will have problems of cultural apartheid going on this is extremely important this cultural proximity is very important you know beyond the way economically that's why I think that used solely you know like in Germany could be a way to handle this issues you know you have people born say in Italy they study Italian they learn very well our language they want to invest in our country they want to become citizens I wonder why we should force them to become heroes before we deliver we give citizenship you know that may be a fight I ate some discussion not only with the people working in Italian administration but also people working at the European Commission for another choice that is often made so they decide that refugees should be sent to rural areas and where it's very difficult for men to integrate to find and also we're extremely visible because we serve small towns and if you send 10 people they would immediately identify by the local population and perceive with some distrust so I said why don't you allow them to live in towns where there is a better labour mark he said to me because otherwise we would come too many of them would come this is completely crazy my view because this is really a way to create to make a problem even more difficult to handle well I think as I said too many it becomes difficult and we need to find a Via Media of a way that there's a reasonable rate of absorption but on this issue of sending people to the rural areas what if the those who want to apply on economic grounds for immigration good doctors good technocrats a sort of requirement was you spend four years in this area which doesn't have a doctor or has very few doctors the value of that is of course they provide local services but another value is we talked about leadership or we talked about human capital they could replenish the human capital of their area the children will go to schools they will participate but most important they also give a sense that not all immigrants are sort of uneducated trying to take your social security from you they can also contribute and so they may change the dialogue as you know one of the bigger concerns is the places that are most resistant to any immigration are the places which have the least encounter with immigrants because their rural areas as you said very few immigrants they fear the possibility of immigrants rather than the actuality right in my sense is some spreading of the immigrant population may result in more more learning from each other in fact surveys in the u.s. show when you actually knows an immigrant your view of them is somewhat more receptive then the people who don't know any and an actual human contact makes a difference and that bet more broadly is my point that in the longer run the future of the world is much more integration across countries in terms of trade in terms of capital flows in terms of people and we have to prepare our societies for that world of tomorrow shock treatment by great mixing immediately in big ways is not possible and creates a reaction but can we at least mix at the edges a little more and give people confidence by saying there are vehicles your own community by which you can continue your culture continue our history continue your language and in the longer run at the edges we'll mix more and we will have a more varied but richer composite culture what you said about gradualism is indeed very very important unfortunately for refugee crisis often varies this is not an option because they come in large waves and large alike economic migrants and the example of a doctor I found it very nice because these visas could be a strategy actually to revitalize some internal rural areas in Italy as well because if you think about people working clearly very you have very strong agglomeration economies and we have seen a lot of them so you have a tendency to go to a larger conurbation and so on but if you think about non employment and you know people retirees for instance and Italy could attract territories from all over the world and not the problem is that we have to have medical services at the local level in rural areas that's really precondition to this to be done let's go to another another set of issues but been addressed by several lectures here but is the same thing because the narrative of populist and also this election is 10 to underplay technological changes put the forefront globalization trade and so on and perhaps because it's easier to find enemies you know which are external enemies rather than you know technological change after all is something that you know machines and we we have introduced machine cyber salvus you know so Elmen in particular had been showing that technological change is way more important than globalization in having created the problem of restructuring relocation of jobs destruction of jobs and there was a very nice presentation by rafael detail they made an experiment in which way look at the reaction of people depending on the nature of a shock they show that if people you know precess displaced workers understand that the reason why their job is been lost is due to technological change they are way more ready to a set compensation in the form of unemployment benefits social assistance and whatever when if they know that the reason why the plant was shut down or her job was lost is due to the fact that there was a penetration of Chinese imports so that reduces of a degree or was an acceptance of so this is really a problem of narrative and how to explain how can we convince and explain but it often it is technological change rather than import penetration more of cheek in another debate has also been arguing but this the type of trade protection abut we are experiencing and that is more a barque type of attitude rather than a bite so we're just frightening to do things but at the end of the day we won't do much but we know also that you know protection is a very slippery slope so we don't know where we end and we don't know the reaction of the other countries and you know we may end up in trade wars as also we suppose discussed somewhere and another potential consequence of trade protection is that would increased migration so we will go back to v2 with a problem but and then it will be very large migration flows taking place so what can we do in this respect it's simply a matter of telling the truth and explaining that it is more technological change should we try to give the response to technological change perhaps the rubberband trade protectionism allowing people to making the social welfare system more supportive of human capital investment finding way to retrain people so addressing the core issue imposed by technological change more than by strictly by trade liberalisation should we introduce it reliable where trade policies are established also some unemployment benefits for instance having an unemployment benefits being run at the European level what is the well I think you defined populous earlier and I would add one element to that which is the populace also wants to propose easy solutions solutions that blame others often not all populist but some that because it's easier to say the answers I'm going to shut those people out I'm going to change the rules so that now you will do okay it's much harder to say the problem also lies with you that your skills haven't adapted partly because you've never had to adapt and that today you will have to make these hard choices and governments haven't made it easy for workers to retrain workers to re-skill themselves so when you say that you know coal mining is going to end there is no future for it you will have to find something new it becomes something where the politician has no answer on the other hand if the politician says I'm gonna bring back coal mining by shutting out coal imports from everywhere else the coal mines will have a future again the steel steel mills will have a future even though people don't believe that he will have that level of protectionism they know at least it's a policy that is something he can do and it's something they would far prefer they prefer prefer to get that old job back rather than to take a new job it gives them some hope because for the new job they need these skills which are really hard to get I was shocked when I read this book Janesville which is about a GM plant closing down and the author talks about GM workers who haven't used a computer in this day and age somebody who is 4550 years old has never used a computer now for them to train is so difficult because they simply haven't kept up now there are places which have insisted on continuous training and Retraining I'm in Scandinavia Sweden for example active labor market policies in the factories the workers are told you may lose your jobs so therefore think about alternatives what are these courses you need to keep your skills up so it's a it's a coalition of the employer the government labor unions and NGOs which come together and hire private sector consultants to keep looking at the skill base of the employees and how they can keep updating so when the company closes down or fires a bunch of workers those consultants come in and tell you know ok you you can move to this industry but you need this course and that course that seems a far more streamlined way of dealing with it rather than you know 30 years they've done nothing and you look at them and say what can we make you fit for it's much harder in that situation so we do need to rethink the whole whole process of of retraining rescaling when we unfortunately talk about protectionism president Trump today said something like tariffs are easy we haven't got the protections against protectionism so strongly built into our economies tariffs seems to be the thing in many countries that the government has the easiest resort to and when you can also tell a narrative around them that I'm protecting your jobs it becomes politically very easy so the mystery is how for you know 60 or 70 years post-world war ii we kept reducing tariffs and why we didn't have the burst of protectionism that we see today unfortunately with the country at the center of the global order now tearing up the global order and setting fire to it we really have are in a very dangerous situation it doesn't start and begin with trade protectionism what you will see very quickly is what we are already seeing is investment protectionism I don't want these kinds of investments in my country but I'm not gonna let my companies invest in your country and then all this global supply chains that we've built up they're starting to break down we are at the beginning of a very very dangerous outcome for the global economy it's particularly dangerous I would argue for industrial countries where populations are aging where demand is increasingly going to be in the rest of the world at this time to adopt strongly protectionist measures is going to be really problematic going forward this is a very important point in the but for aging societies this is even more problem and when you started a trade trade a trade war you never know where you end and unfortunately historical precedence so we should rethink about welfare systems make them more proactive and capable of finding remedies for permanent loser people who have been this place for a long time rather than only temporary relief that's know for sure and I think we need to pay far more attention to those left behind and figure out I mean the best outcome would be much better training systems such that they don't see a significant loss in income the reality is for those who haven't kept up this is going to be difficult so the second best alternative is a lower-level job plus supplementary income to make sure that they don't fall off too much but but my my sense is even if we can't solve the problem for the people of a certain age today let's make sure the younger people today don't fall into the same trap let's find ways to continue regenerating human capital and and for that we need to change our systems considerably from what they are today right and let's do the safety net design them properly in order not to discourage people from looking for a job but there are a number of very specific design features that have been discussed at this festival also concerning be ready to reach it I didn't answer that I hope will be taken on board but this leads me to the last set of issues that I would like to discuss review is possible because many people have been addressed by Mehta festival this morning David Lizer have been suggesting that non economists often use misleading the cognitive shortcuts form an opinion about economic issues and often you have very strong metaphors better being used we have some example of this in the current in the recent debate public debate in Italy about pensions you know there was an idea of reintroducing an early retirement in Italy and the way this was sold is this is going to create the jobs for the young people you know depicting the labor market as a bus a crowded bus whereby if you want to get in you need to have people leaving the bus which is clearly completely misleading metaphors because they were marked don't work that way if you look at any series of employment and unemployment you see that young and old people when the jobs grow grow for a young and for the old people go for me natives and for the migrants when they decline rate decline for both there is nothing like a bus or a fixed number of jobs another metaphor which is very popular I know because I keep on receiving letters of people saying the type of things is that the pension system works as a bank deposit so where you can withdraw the money whenever you like rather than at a legal system in which workers current workers pay so you know making people to understand how actually economics works which is a rather complex body is not an easy task but you know sometimes the way people are stating things is so simple and you have given that very general mistrust these days about against the expertise is something that my expense was saying very very very important things this afternoon together with Rob Johnson so it's very difficult to cope with this simplification so what should we do should be try and simplify ourself is our language to which extent I mean should we adopt the same metaphors where people accept or should we resist that well it's hard right because as the French the great French journalist in the 19th century Bastiat said the the reality about economics is not the value of an economist is not about first-round effects or direct effects that even the layman can see it's about the second round effects what happens after the first round as people react that's where the economist contributes but that's much harder to see and much harder to explain so take trade protectionism in the same analogy as the bus oh if I prevent that fellow from producing the good my people can produce the good so protectionism will create jobs now as any economist will tell you wait a minute wait a minute you are producing much more inefficiently in your country because that was the reason why you bought it from abroad as you produce more inefficiently in your country essentially the overall effect is in the long run going to be a loss to your country rather than again and sometimes it shows up even in job losses in your country as you force for example you put tariffs on steel you force your automakers to buy high-priced steel because they buy high-priced steel they can't compete it out of these auto market because they're not producing as many cars they have to fire some workers so protecting the steel job comes at the expense of firing the auto worker these are the kinds of relationships that economists will talk about second-round effects and third round effects which are much harder to explain why for example does the central bank insist on raising interest rates or to bring down inflation well why does inflation matter don't I care much more about jobs today than about inflation now people in this room fully understand what the trade-offs are and why the trade-offs are made but it's much harder to explain those especially when you have a president saying the central bank is raising interest rates and and preventing job growth preventing my fine recovery so when you're talking with you know first when you're having to defend as an expert against the politician you already at a disadvantage because the politician speaks the language of the people much more effectively than you as an expert second you're trying to talk about new answers because the new answers are important they ultimately subvert the first round affects the politician is talking about but the politician will say this is the effect and this guy next to me talking about all this doesn't know anything he sits in a academic room in an ivory tower and writes his papers that nobody reads but I know the real world I experience it every day and here's what it's like as the public who you going to believe so in some sense when it comes to a fight between the expert and the politician in the short run the there is no contest the politician will always win the hope is that the expert over time through evidence through examples through books through discussions like this builds trust and that's why I think the point that Mike Spencer is making is so important that trust in experts is critical because they can talk whatever they want as long as you trust that they're doing the right thing by you you allow them the ability to make policy and I think that was then in Europe for 30 40 years after World War two that resulted in substantial growth when the trust breaks down when the expert has to justify every last policy on the one hand is good it proved it puts some check and balance on the expert but it makes policymaking much harder that's a very important point and also I think it's important to Democrat eyes we debate and allow people to know that the discussion is there are issues that are complicated and the veter are also different opinions in our profession sometimes you may think is also my expense was a nice afternoon when you present to economy standing to different views on that even three or four different views you know may weaken to some extent you know the way are being perceived but I think important also to show that so complicated issues that often you may not have exactly the same the same the same view on that type of things so I think this is perhaps what we try and do in in Trento to some extent and to allow people to come and discuss and be exposed and in in all of the other meetings I was at the audience ask very relevant question and it was an exercise for people being at the top of research to to cope with issues and without however ever giving up the idea that you need to go in the detail and explain things on this point of four economists having five views or six views I I think the reality is that there is a fair amount of consensus and economic profession on many things but it's always possible to find some outliers and one of the realities about policy making that people will tell you is it doesn't matter what the profession things what the politician is looking for is somebody who thinks like him who is the guy who's writing stuff that mirrors my view on how the world should be run and that's the economists who's trotted out and gets the stage at that point so there is a little bit of games gamesmanship here to make the economics profession sometimes we have a lot of debates but they're often about second-order effects we agree on the first order of X and some of the second-order effects also indeed so perhaps we can take one or two questions and then we talked about we let's see if there is anybody here there take his trial now wait a second where is the microphone coming so everybody can no no quickly everybody can hear you provocative just to get your juices flowing thanks talked about space-based action and I would say as an economist I don't give a damn about space you know trees and hills and valleys don't appear in my social welfare function people do and once you realize that your arguments about migration seemed to me a bit more questionable I mean most of the migration that we have seen in the last 200 years to the new world I would say without any question economics torian's agree have been welfare improving now that doesn't mean that was good for the people who stay behind and so we have to wait their losses against the gains of the people who moved and against the people who who received ready-made human capital adults and so on and so forth but my sense is that anything that space based in and of itself seems to be off base cubot space yeah great point well and and here is an example of two economists disagree see I think it goes back to what assumptions we have right and in in in when I say place based or space based measures I'm talking about populations that have very low mobility and as you know the increasing concern in the United States is about you know mobility not being as high as we thought it was and if in fact there are populations that are locked in there if they weren't I San Francisco is doing very well creating jobs let people move to San Francisco its if they can't all move to San Francisco because they're prohibitive rents out there there is a prohibitive cost of living that you require on minimum a certain level of capability to be there then I really want to take the capability building to where they are rather than tell them all to move to San Francisco similarly to the extent that there is a community out there and jobs have disappeared and not all people in fact the the research that auto Renauld suggests is people stay where they are instead of moving to where the jobs are and the people who stay are the lower-income people and so on if that is the case I may have to target more place-based measures to get them up and running rather than say they will decline now there are some communities which you can't do anything about and you have to say well you know I would give them a ticket to leave rather than stay and you have to close down some communities but there are many that are on the threshold if they deteriorate more they will become the kind that you will have to give a ticket and be part of that but many can revive and for them some place based measures can be very helpful another question from the floor here quick Senora quoi er simply idea days hello my name is Tobias P Lehmann German journalist can you try to apply the last point also to Europe because Europe is not as homogeneous as the United States so when you have a problem in Greece you can't tell them all to move to London or you can't tell people from Portugal to move to Spain because there is also a language barrier a cultural barrier and zone what does this give you as a consequence for the European Common Market with the right to move to any other country but maybe in practice its difference well I think it goes back to the earlier point that you know in a sense we don't want Greece to depopulate and move into play elsewhere so certainly there is an issue of regional development and the EU obviously has regional development funds which are relatively small but certainly it exists but my point has been that the problem of development can't really be solved from the outside it can be supported from the outside but it often is solved from the inside and you need to find people there who are willing to take charge who willing to move forward who willing to revive and each country each region if it's lucky finds those people and that's when it grows but there are also a lot of underdeveloped countries and underdeveloped regions that have not shown any progress for a long period of time we can try ways of getting seeding that process but ultimately we have to recognize and this is unfortunately the sorry history of development of countries it cannot be done from the outside there is an empowerment we were also talking empowerment empowerment enrichment through seeding of the population getting people to stay and come back those are things that can energize the movement sharing best practices one of the things the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia does in its Community Development is get communities together to explain what they've done and how they've done things differently all that is possible but IIIi think ultimately to think that we will do it through a central process is probably overestimating the capacity of the center it doesn't happen that way you can pour a lot of money but it doesn't work I mean think about the amount of money that's gone into Nigeria in trying to develop it well thank you so much as I said before we we hope to have you back there very soon too and we are sure that this book will be as influential as previous one and your talk has been extremely enlightening for us so I switch back a little yeah no sabes Amenti para presentar we all cou need a tissue quest adición de festival on choke a demented petraeus righto salt on tone empro see me journée abbiamo butoh do a chain to quattro real a torii OB ama butoh Chin'toka tony hsieh venti chain to Cinque right web Cinque me Leone a chain to Millikan asiana cleaned even incrementally importante respeto Alanis course in Cuero no status chica Quattro me Leone abbiamo Bhutto Cinque wanted we Millikan se oniy LED Rhetta streaming XP on incrementer an offer on Tammy de la no score so trecento trent atreya Deltora no Rosato jornalist e operatory photography chain touch in quanta quattro test at a journalistic a multi-strand era projects indicate que una social network additionally 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